Jumps in stock prices: New insights from old data

نویسندگان

چکیده

We characterize jump dynamics in U.S. stock market returns using a novel series of intraday prices covering almost 90 years. Jump vary substantially over time. Trends activity relate to secular shifts the nature news. Unscheduled news often involving major wars drives early decades, whereas scheduled and especially pertaining monetary policy recent decades. variation measures forecast excess returns, consistent with theory. Results support models featuring separate factor, such that risk premium are not fully captured by volatility state variables. • analyze long-horizon returns. use long history intradaily price data. show incidence rates considerably time period encompassing nearly most equity historically. The proportion jumps attributable announcements – increases markedly connect time-variation premium. positively aggregate theoretical time-varying risk. Our results jump–diffusion decouple from those diffusive return variation.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Financial Markets

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1386-4181', '1878-576X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2022.100708